Tswj kev lag luam "hnyav" ntsuas. Los ntawm kev xav thoob ntiaj teb, Tuam Tshoj, Tebchaws Europe, thiab Tebchaws Meskas yog peb lub lag luam saum toj kawg nkaus rau kev thov photovoltaic. Xyoo 2022, European photovoltaic kev teeb tsa yuav kub, thaum Asmeskas kev lag luam yuav txias vim muaj kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam. Raws li cov teb chaws Europe nrawm nws lub zog hloov pauv thiab Asmeskas kev lag luam margin tau txhim kho, nws zoo siab tias qhov kev thov rau kev lag luam yuav nce xyoo 2023.
Nyob rau hauv 2022, lub peev xwm ntsia tau rau hauv Tebchaws Europe tau tshaj qhov kev cia siab, thiab kev loj hlob siab yuav tsum tau txuas ntxiv mus rau xyoo 2023. SPE tsis ntev los no tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom hais tias qhov kev tsim kho tshiab photovoltaic muaj peev xwm nyob hauv Europe hauv 22 xyoo yog xav kom ncav cuag cov ntaub ntawv 41.4GW, ntxiv rau 47. feem pua ntawm xyoo. Peb ntseeg tias cov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev loj hlob sai ntawm European kev ua lag luam suav nrog: 1) Geopolitical tsis sib haum xeeb tau ua kom cov txheej txheem ntawm European zog ywj pheej; 2) Vim tsis muaj zog, ob qho tib si ntuj thiab hluav taws xob nqi tau nce siab; 3) Cov neeg nyob sab Europe feem ntau muaj cov nqi hluav taws xob ntau dua, thiab photovoltaics yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam. Saib rau yav tom ntej, thaum lub Tsib Hlis 2022, European Union tau tshaj tawm "REPower EU" lub tswv yim los txhawb kev xa mus nrawm ntawm photovoltaics hauv Tebchaws Europe. SPE kwv yees tias qhov kev saib xyuas / nruab nrab / qhov zoo ntawm qhov kev teeb tsa tshiab nyob hauv Europe hauv 2023 yuav yog 42.8 GW (ntxiv rau 3 feem pua) / 43.4 GW (ntxiv rau 29 feem pua) / 67.8GW (ntxiv rau 64 feem pua) feem.
Xyoo 2022, lub peev xwm txhim kho hauv Tebchaws Meskas yog qis dua qhov xav tau, thiab qhov kev thov muaj peev xwm hauv 2023 muaj zog. Raws li SEIA/Wood Mackenzie, tag nrho lub peev xwm ntsia tau rau hauv Tebchaws Meskas yuav tsum tsuas yog 18.6GW hauv 2022, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo -23 feem pua, ntawm qhov xav tau nruab peev xwm ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob / tsev neeg / kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam thiab cov zej zog yog 10.3GW (-40 feem pua) / 5.8GW (ntxiv rau 37 feem pua) feem pua ) / 2.5GW (ntxiv rau 3 feem pua). Peb ntseeg tias qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb ntawm kev poob qis hauv kev teeb tsa lub peev xwm hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam hauv 2022 yog tias Asmeskas kev lag luam cuam tshuam los ntawm WRO, kev tshawb nrhiav kev tiv thaiv kev hla, thiab UFLPA Txoj Cai, ua rau cov khoom lag luam tsis zoo. Saib ua ntej rau lub xyoo tshiab, yam uas yuav txhawb kev xav tau kev loj hlob hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam hauv 2023 feem ntau suav nrog: 1) US cov nqi hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv; 2) IRA Act se credit policy stimulus; 3) Anti-circumvention tshawb nrhiav zaum kawg kev zam txuas ntxiv rau 2 xyoos; Txoj Cai UFLPA tau raug tshuaj xyuas, tab sis tsis ntev los no, cov tuam txhab uas tau kaw ib ntus photovoltaic modules tau raug tso tawm los ntawm US Customs, thiab muaj cov txheej txheem ua ntej rau cov khoom siv tom ntej. Txhawm rau suav nrog, txawm hais tias lub peev xwm txhim kho hauv Tebchaws Meskas hauv 2023 ntsib qhov tsis paub tseeb, qhov kev xav tau tseem muaj zog heev. SEIA/Wood Mackenzie cia siab tias Teb Chaws Asmeskas yuav nruab txog 28GW (ntxiv rau 51 feem pua) hauv 2023.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov saw hlau, tus nqi ntawm cov saw hlau ua lag luam poob qis, thiab peb zoo siab txog kev ua lag luam hauv 2023. Los ntawm 2021 txog 2022, tus nqi ntawm cov saw hlau lag luam yuav nce siab, txwv qhov kev thov rau qee qhov kev teeb tsa hauv qab. Raws li tus nqi ntawm cov saw hlau lag luam poob, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv qis thiab cov tshuab yuav poob, uas yuav txhawb nqa lub ntiaj teb kev xav tau hauv 2023.